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Слайды и текст к этой презентации:
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Содержание слайда: Common Stock
Common stock is the principal way that corporations raise equity capital.
Stockholders have the right to vote and be the residual claimants of all funds flowing to the firm.
Dividends are payments made periodically, usually every quarter, to stockholders.
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Содержание слайда: Several Kinds of “Value”
There are several types of value, of which we are concerned with four:
Book Value – The carrying value on the balance sheet of the firm’s equity (Total Assets less Total Liabilities)
Tangible Book Value – Book value minus intangible assets (goodwill, patents, etc)
Market Value - The price of an asset as determined in a competitive marketplace
Intrinsic Value - The present value of the expected future cash flows discounted at the decision maker’s required rate of return
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Содержание слайда: 9.1 Reading Stock Listings
The following newspaper stock listing is usually printed as a horizontal string of information
The listing is for IBM, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange
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Содержание слайда: Reading Stock Listings
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Содержание слайда: Reading Stock Listings
Hi = 123 1/8: The highest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks
Lo = 93 1/8: The lowest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks
Stock = IBM: The stock’s name
Sym = IBM: The stock’s symbol
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Содержание слайда: Reading Stock Listings
Div = 4.84: The last quarterly dividend multiplied by 4
Yld % = 4.2: Dividend yield; (Annualized dividend ÷ stock price)
PE = 16: Price-to-earnings; (Latest price ÷ last 4 actual dividends)
Vol 100s = 14591*100; Volume of exchange traded shares
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Содержание слайда: Reading Stock Listings
Hi = 115: Highest share price of the day
Lo = 113: Lowest share price of the day
Close = 114 3/4: Days closing share price
Chg = 1 3/8: Change in closing price from previous trading day
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Содержание слайда: Equation Total Return
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Содержание слайда: Rate of Total Return
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Содержание слайда: One-Period Valuation Model
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Содержание слайда: Generalized Dividend
Valuation Model
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Содержание слайда: Gordon Growth Model
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Содержание слайда: Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns
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Содержание слайда: Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns
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Содержание слайда: Example Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth
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Содержание слайда: Example 9.2 Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth
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Содержание слайда: Factors Affecting Stock Prices
Business cycles
Interest rate changes
Investor sentiment about
Economy,
Earnings
And markets
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Содержание слайда: interest rate = risk free rate + risk premium, ke = rf + rp
then
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Содержание слайда: higher risk free rate, lower stock price
higher risk free rate, lower stock price
higher risk premium, lower stock price
higher dividends, higher stock price
higher dividend growth, higher stock price
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Содержание слайда: example
D = $2, g = 2%, rf = 3%, rp = 5%
P= $2/(.03+.05-.02)
P = $2/.06 = $33.33
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Содержание слайда: what if risk premium rises to 7%?
what if risk premium rises to 7%?
P = $2/(.03+.07-.02) = $2/.08 = $12.50
what if risk premium falls to 3%?
P = $2/(.03+.03-.02) = $2/.04 = $50
Dividend discount model shows us why stock prices are volatile
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Содержание слайда: Price Earnings Valuation Method (Cont’d)
The PE ratio can be used to estimate the value of a firm’s stock.
The product of the PE ratio times the expected earnings is the firm’s stock price.
(P/E) x E = P
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Содержание слайда: Stock Analysis
Fundamental analysis
Quantitative analysis
Based on financial statements
Qualitative analysis
More subjective
Examines management skill
Technical analysis
Examines past performance
Of firm and market
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Содержание слайда: Implications of the Theory of Rational Expectations
Even though a rational expectation equals the optimal
forecast using all available information, a prediction based
on it may not always be perfectly accurate
It takes too much effort to make the expectation the best guess possible.
Best guess will not be accurate because predictor is unaware of some relevant information.
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Содержание слайда: Implications
If there is a change in the way a variable moves, the way in which expectations
of the variable are formed will change
as well.
The forecast errors of expectations will, on average, be zero and cannot be predicted ahead of time.
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Содержание слайда: Efficient Markets: An Application of Rational Expectations
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Содержание слайда: Implications of the EMH for the stock market: Investing in the Stock Market:
Recommendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform the market.
A hot tip is probably information already contained in the price of the stock.
Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new and unexpected.
A “buy and hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small investor.
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Содержание слайда: Evidence Against Market Efficiency
Small-firm effect
January Effect
Market Overreaction
Excessive Volatility
Mean Reversion
New information is not always immediately incorporated into
stock prices
Chaos and fractals
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Содержание слайда: (b)Behavioural Finance.
The lack of short selling (causing
over-priced stocks) may be explained by loss aversion.
The large trading volume may be explained by investor overconfidence.
Stock market bubbles may be explained by overconfidence and social contagion.
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Содержание слайда: Bubbles
Bubbles
Large gaps between actual asset price and fundamental value
Internet stock bubble of late 1990s
Housing bubble?
Eventually the bubble bursts!
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Содержание слайда: In the Generalized Dividend Valuation Model equation:
“Fundamentals”:
“Bubble”:
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Содержание слайда: Implications of efficiency evidence
very difficult for average person to beat the market
trying to do so generates trading costs
the alternative
buy-and-hold diversified portfolio
indexing
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Содержание слайда: conclusion
stock market price behavior combines
fundamentals
investor psychology
markets are not perfectly efficient
field of behavioral economics, finance
On rational Expectations
http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/staff/whelanka/topic4.pdf
Stocks Valuation
http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
Stock Dividend Model
http://thismatter.com/money/stocks/valuation/dividend-discount-model.htm