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№1 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img0.jpg)
№2 слайд![Testimony Conclusions](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img1.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 1988 Testimony: Conclusions
1988 Testimony: Conclusions
1. Earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instrumental measurements
2. Global warming is now large enough that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse effect
3. Greenhouse effect is already large enough to effect the probability of extreme events such as summer heat waves
№3 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img2.jpg)
№4 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img3.jpg)
№5 слайд![Basis of Testimony Basis of](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img4.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Basis of Testimony
Basis of Testimony
1988
1. Basic Physics, Planetary & Paleo Studies
2. Observed On-Going Climate Change
3. Climate Models
2008
1. Paleoclimate: History of Earth’s Climate
2. Global Observations of Climate Processes
3. Climate Models
№6 слайд![Major Flaws in Testimony](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img5.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Major Flaws in 1988 Testimony
Major Flaws in 1988 Testimony
Did Not Emphasize Warming vs Chaos
- Weather Variations >> Climate Trend
- Small Change of Mean Has Big Effects
Did Not Emphasize That Global Warming
Enhances Both Extremes of Water Cycle
- More Intense Droughts, Heat Waves, Fires
- Heavier Rainfall, Greater Floods, Stronger Storms Driven by Latent Heat (Thunder Storms, Tornados, Tropical Storms)
№7 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img6.jpg)
№8 слайд![Global Warming Status Global](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img7.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Global Warming Status
Global Warming Status
1. Knowledge Gap Between
- What is Understood (science)
- What is Known (public)
2. Planetary Emergency
- Climate Inertia Warming in Pipeline
- Tipping Points Could Lose Control
3. Good News & Bad News
- Safe Level of CO2 < 350 ppm
- Multiple Benefits of Solution
№9 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img8.jpg)
№10 слайд![Metrics for Dangerous Change](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img9.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Metrics for “Dangerous” Change
Metrics for “Dangerous” Change
Extermination of Animal & Plant Species
1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species
2. Unsustainable Migration Rates
Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level
1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data
2. Ice Sheet Response Time
Regional Climate Disruptions
1. Increase of Extreme Events
2. Shifting Zones/Freshwater Shortages
№11 слайд![Target CO Target CO lt ppm To](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img10.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Target CO2:
Target CO2:
< 350 ppm
To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed
№12 слайд![Tipping Point Definitions](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img11.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Tipping Point Definitions
Tipping Point Definitions
1. Tipping Level
- Climate forcing (greenhouse gas amount)
reaches a point such that no additional
forcing is required for large climate
change and impacts
2. Point of No Return
- Climate system reaches a point with
unstoppable irreversible climate impacts
(irreversible on a practical time scale)
Example: disintegration of large ice sheet
№13 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img12.jpg)
№14 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img13.jpg)
№15 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img14.jpg)
№16 слайд![Arctic Sea Ice Criterion .](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img15.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Arctic Sea Ice Criterion*
1. Restore Planetary Energy Balance
CO2: 385 ppm 325-355 ppm
2. Restore Sea Ice: Aim for -0.5 W/m2
CO2: 385 ppm 300-325 ppm
Range based on uncertainty in present planetary energy imbalance (between 0.5 and 1 W/m2)
*Assuming near-balance among non-CO2 forcings
№17 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img16.jpg)
№18 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img17.jpg)
№19 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img18.jpg)
№20 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img19.jpg)
№21 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img20.jpg)
№22 слайд![Sea Level Criterion . Prior](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img21.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Sea Level Criterion*
1. Prior Interglacial Periods
CO2 <~ 300 ppm
2. Cenozoic Era
CO2 <~ 300 ppm
3. Ice Sheet Observations
CO2 < 385 ppm
*Assuming near-balance among non-CO2 forcings
№23 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img22.jpg)
№24 слайд![Rongbuk Glacier](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img23.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Rongbuk Glacier
№25 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img24.jpg)
№26 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img25.jpg)
№27 слайд![Assessment of Target CO](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img26.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Assessment of Target CO2
Assessment of Target CO2
Phenomenon Target CO2 (ppm)
1. Arctic Sea Ice 300-325
2. Ice Sheets/Sea Level 300-350
3. Shifting Climatic Zones 300-350
4. Alpine Water Supplies 300-350
5. Avoid Ocean Acidification 300-350
Initial Target CO2 = 350* ppm
*assumes CH4, O3, Black Soot decrease
№28 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img27.jpg)
№29 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img28.jpg)
№30 слайд![Initial Target CO ppm](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img29.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Initial Target CO2: 350 ppm
Technically Feasible
(but not if business-as-usual continues)
Quick Coal Phase-Out Critical
(long lifetime of atmospheric CO2)
(must halt construction of any new coal plants that do not capture & store CO2)
№31 слайд![Free Will Alternative . Phase](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img30.jpg)
Содержание слайда: “Free Will” Alternative
1. Phase Out Coal CO2 Emissions
- by 2025/2030 developed/developing countries
2. Rising Carbon Price
- discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.)
3. Soil & Biosphere CO2 Sequestration
- improved farming & forestry practices
4. Reduce non-CO2 Forcings
- reduce CH4, O3, trace gases, black soot
№32 слайд![Carbon Tax amp Dividend . Tax](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img31.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend
1. Tax Large & Growing (but get it in place!)
- tap efficiency potential & life style choices
2. Entire Tax Returned
- equal monthly deposits in bank accounts
3. Limited Government Role
- keep hands off money!
- eliminate fossil subsidies
- let marketplace choose winners
- change profit motivation of utilities
- watch U.S. modernize & emissions fall!
№33 слайд![Key Elements in](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img32.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Key Elements in Transformation
Low-Loss Electric Grid
Clean Energy by 2020 (West) & 2030
Allows Renewable Energy Ascendancy
Carbon Tax and 100% Dividend
Tax at First Sale of Coal/Oil/Gas
Tax Can Rise & Spur Transformations “100% or Fight! No Alligator-Shoes!”
№34 слайд![Basic Conflict Fossil Fuel](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img33.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Basic Conflict
Fossil Fuel Special Interests
vs
Young People & Nature (Animals)
Fossil Interests: God-given fact that all
fossil fuels will be burned (no free will)
Young People: Hey! Not so fast! Nice planet you are leaving us!
№35 слайд![What are the Odds? Fossil](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img34.jpg)
Содержание слайда: What are the Odds?
Fossil Interests: have influence in capitals world-wide
Young People: need to organize, enlist others (parents, e.g.), impact elections
Animals: not much help (don’t vote, don’t talk)
№36 слайд![The Challenge We can avoid](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img35.jpg)
Содержание слайда: The Challenge
We can avoid destroying creation!
(+cleaner planet, + good jobs!)
We have to figure out how to live without fossil fuels someday…
Why not now?
№37 слайд![Web Site www.columbia.edu jeh](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img36.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Web Site
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
includes
Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near (today’s statement)
Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?
№38 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img37.jpg)
№39 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img38.jpg)
№40 слайд![Cenozoic Era](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img39.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Cenozoic Era
№41 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img40.jpg)
№42 слайд![Summary Cenozoic Era Summary](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img41.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Summary: Cenozoic Era
Summary: Cenozoic Era
1. Dominant Forcing: Natural ΔCO2
- Rate ~100 ppm/My (0.0001 ppm/year)
- Human-made rate today: ~2 ppm/year
Humans Overwhelm Slow Geologic Changes
2. Climate Sensitivity High
- Antarctic ice forms if CO2 < ~450 ppm
- Ice sheet formation reversible
Humans Could Produce “A Different Planet”
№43 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img42.jpg)
№44 слайд![](/documents_6/411c21ce0a6a315f71f48d873726d496/img43.jpg)