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Слайды и текст к этой презентации:
№1 слайд
Содержание слайда: Development economics
(market economy formation models)
Lecturer: Victor v. slobodyanik
№2 слайд
Содержание слайда: The structure of the course
Developmental tradition in Economics: it’s essence, origin and sources.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous.
Keynesian models of economic growth.
№3 слайд
Содержание слайда: The structure of the course
Neoclassical models of economic development.
Institutional and neo-institutional analysis of the problems of economic modernization.
The exterior factors of economic development: their essence, types and role.
№4 слайд
Содержание слайда: The structure of the course
The new models of economic growth on the role of human capital.
Factor markets and the problem of poverty in developing countries.
Government and market: the problems of their interaction in developing countries.
№5 слайд
Содержание слайда: The structure of the course
Catching-up development in the modern world: the factors, results and problems.
Market reforms in Russia: short history, results and problems.
№6 слайд
Содержание слайда: Reading list on the course
Herschenkron A. Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective: A Book of Essays. Cambridge (Mass.), 1962.
Preston P. W. Theories of Development. L., 1982.
Coleman D., Nixson F. Economics of Change in Less Developed Countries. 2nd ed. Oxfard 1986
Rostow W. W. Theories of Economics Growth from David Hume to the Present. N.Y., 1992.
№7 слайд
Содержание слайда: Reading list on the course
Rostow W. W. The Stages of Economics Growth. A Non-communist Manifesto. Cambridge, 1960.
Leibenstein H. A. Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth. Studies in the Theory of Economic Development. N.Y., 1957.
Todaro M. P. Economic Development. 5th ed. L., 1994.
Ray D. Development Economics. Princeton, 1998.
Rosenstein-Rodan P. N. Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and South-Estern Europe // The Economic Journal. 1943. Vol. 53. June/ September.
№8 слайд
Содержание слайда: Reading list on the course
Murphy K., Schleifer A., Vishny R. Industrialization and the Big Push // Journal of Political Economy. 1989.
Hirshman A.O. The Strategy of Economic Development. 2nd ed. New Haven, 1961.
Lewis W. A. The Theory of Economic Growth. N.Y., 1959.
Myrdal G. Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations. Vol. I-III. N.Y., 1968.
Schultez T.W. Investments in Human Capital. N.Y., 1971.
Soto E. de. The Mystery of Capital. N.Y., 1995.
№9 слайд
Содержание слайда: Reading list on the course
Soto E. de. The Other Way. N.Y., 1987.
Prebisch R. The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. N.Y. 1962.
Amin S. L’échange inégale et la loi de la valeur. Paris. 1973.
Solow R. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth//.Quarterly journal of Economics. 1956. February.
Becker G. Human Capital. N.Y. 1954.
Ha-Joan Chang Economics: the User’s Guide. London, Penguin Books, 2010.
Нуреев Р.М. Экономика развития: модели становления рыночной экономики. Изд. Норма, М., 2008.
№10 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
Backward countries can not develop if they entirely rely on the market
Path dependence problem
Development tradition is not an economic school: pragmatic and eclectic character, but its eclecticism is at the same time its drawback and advantage.
№11 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
Developmental tradition is the most important intellectual tradition in Economics: it accounts for all the successful examples of economic development in the history of mankind (GB, the USA, Germany, the modern China).
№12 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
Developmental tradition: its origin and evolution (Henry VII, Govanni Botero, Antonio Serre, mercantilist economic school, German historical school).
Development tradition had for its goal to assist the economically backward countries to develop their economies in order to catch up the economically advanced countries.
№13 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
The followers of the developmental tradition believed that economic development can not be reduced entirely to income maximization (the richness in natural resources may be sufficient for it).
They considered the economic development as the result of the ever more productive capacities growth.
№14 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
The followers of the developmental tradition pointed out that the above-mentioned task can not be solved without an active state economic policy under respective forms.
№15 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
Developmental tradition in the modern world: development economics.
Development economics as the modern stage of the developmental tradition was set up in 1950-1960 by such economists as Simon Kuznetz, Arthur Lewis, Gunnar Myrdall, Albert Hirshmann.
№16 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
Developmental tradition is not a coherent economic theory, but it is more adaptable and practically oriented due to its ability to combine the achievements of many economic schools.
№17 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1.
Developmental tradition in economics: it’s essence, origin and sources
The forth-coming themes of our course are focused on the analysis of the main market formation economic models and the practical results of their implementation in developing countries.
№18 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
The collapse of colonial system resulted in the emergence of big group of independent countries. At the beginning of current century they accounted for 75% of the world population and 40% of the world GDP.
№19 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
These two figures characterize the big and ever increasing gap between the industrially developed countries and the countries of the so-called “third world”.
At the same time the countries of the given group are not homogeneous by the criteria of the level of economic development and their place within the world economy.
№20 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
The heterogeneity of the countries of the “third world” determined their classification into different echelons.
One of the most known classifications of this type was worked out by the American economist Alexander Gershenkron.
№21 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
№22 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
A. Gershenkron divided all the capitalist countries into three echelons (see the next slide):
№23 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
№24 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
Besides this classification there are many others, basing mostly on the same criteria
Practical significance of the classification of the countries.
№25 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
The leaders of many countries of the “third world” were inspired by the USSR experience of quick industrialization. They believed that economic backwardness could be overcome within short-run period.
№26 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1I.
The world economy: unity of heterogeneous
It was suggested that the problems of the developing countries were similar to those solved in the pasture by the nowadays developed countries.
Basing on this logic it was quite naturally to use the instruments (models) elaborated by the main economic schools (classical, neoclassical, Keynesian and neo-Keynesian), because these models proved to be efficient in developed capitalist countries.
№27 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The theory of “vicious circle of poverty”.
The founders - H. Zinger and R. Prebisch.
The main thesis: the economic backwardness is due to specific relationship between the rates of growth of population and change of GDP per capita.
№28 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
It means that any increase of GDP per capita leads to ever higher increase of population, that in its turn decreases GDP per capita.
The most known variants of the this theory are:
№29 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
the theory of quasi-stable equilibrium of H. Leibenstein (1922-1994):
The agricultural productivity growth leads to the increase of GDP per capita that is quickly annihilated by the population growth
№30 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The theory of vicious circle of capital shortage of R. Nurkse (1907-1959):
the capital shortage → low labor productivity → low level income → low buying capacity → weak stimulae for investments → the capital shortage
№31 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The Keynesian interpretation of the vicious circle of poverty: low level of savings → investment shortage → low production efficiency → low production profitability → low rates of economic growth → low incomes → low consumption level → low level of savings.
№32 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The concept of the take-off into self-sustained growth by Rostow W. (The Stages of Economic Growth. A Non-communist Manifesto):
the traditional society;
the preconditions for take-off;
the take-off;
№33 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The drive to maturity;
The age of high mass consumption;
The stage of life-quality search.
№34 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The stage classification is based on mostly technical-economic criteria, such as
- technological level;
- branch structure of economy;
- production accumulation share in national income;
- consumption structure etc.
№35 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
In so doing, the economic development is reduced to high rates of growth. The theory puts the accent on the relationship between investments and GDP rates of growth and neglects the necessary social and institutional changes.
№36 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
Nevertheless, W. Rostow’ s theory marked a step forward comparing with the previous theoretical views.
№37 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The theory of big push
The theory of big push is a synthesis of two above-discussed concepts: the vicious circle of poverty and self-sustained growth.
The founder of this theory is P. Rosenstein-Roden (1943)
№38 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
In accordance with his views and the views of his followers (R. Nurkse, G. Zinger, A. Hirshman), the developing countries needed the initial industrialization.
This problem was considered from the neo-Keynesian point of view.
№39 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The first economists of the given school that contributed to the solution of this problem where R. Harrod and E. Domar (1939-1949).
Both of them are the authors of the economic models called: Domar’s model and Harrod’s model.
Both models are mutually complementary, though there are some differences between them.
№40 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
In accordance with the Keynesian tradition, the authors considered investments as the instrument to control the economic growth.
№41 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
№42 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
In Domar’s model the ratio between capital and economic output () and rate of saving (s) are constant, that’s why the volume of output (Y) depends entirely only on capital.
The increase of output (ΔY) depends on increase of investments (ΔI):
№43 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
ΔY =
c - marginal propensity to consume;
-
№44 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
In so doing the increase of the aggregate supply may be represented in the following way:
№45 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
So, the income equilibrium rate of growth (when all the production capacity are fully used) is directly proportional to the rate of saving and marginal productivity of capital ()
The Domar’s model says that in order to maintain the equilibrium, investments and national income should grow at constant rates (but in reality such dynamic equilibrium is rarely stable due to instable growth of planned investments within the private sector.).
№46 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
№47 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
Unlike Domar’s model where the investments were considered as an exogenous factor, in Harrod’s model investments have endogenous character
№48 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
№49 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
№50 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
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№51 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
№52 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
rate of growth, as the condition of economic equilibrium (the full utilization of all the production capacities)
If rate of growth is higher than natural (it means the rate of growth under condition of full employment) → depression;
If rate of growth is less than natural → boom;
If rate of growth is equal to natural and real rates of growth → ideal (optimal) development of economy
Dynamic equilibrium in Harrod’s model is instable.
№53 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
Nowadays both Harrod’s and Domar’s models are considered as one single model that is used by Keynesian school to substantiate the theory of big push.
The model in spite of its drawbacks proved the doubtless linkage between the rates of investments growth and the rates of GDP growth
№54 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
H. Leibenstein pointed out that in order to initiate the big push, the level of investments should not be less than 12-15% of the national income.
The sufficient inflow of investments will increase the rate of growth of per capita income.
In so doing, there will be the increase of buying capacity population and aggregate demand.
№55 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
In the long run the increase of demand will stimulate the entrepreneurial activity in the country and the economic growth.
The big push theory is a macroeconomic theory. It points out that the economic and social backwardness of the developing countries is mostly the result of capital shortage.
№56 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The leaders of many developing countries assumed skeptical attitude towards the self-regulated function of the market.
They believed that what their countries needed, were deep structural changes in the main branches of national economy.
№57 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
R. Nurkse who supported the discussed theory, offered the model of the balanced set of investments as the precondition to launch the process of industrialization simultaneously across the whole economy.
Later on this idea was developed in the works of such economist as Murphy K., Schleifer A. and Vishny R.
№58 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The theory of the balanced set of investments was sharply criticized, because of its unrealistic character: it is not possible to coordinate the investment process in the whole economy in the absence of the centralized planning body. That’s why finally instead of balanced set of investments there will be macroeconomic imbalance and the failure of industrialization.
№59 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
№60 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
Albert O. Hirschman was one the leading critics of the above-discussed model. His main counter argument was the shortage of sufficient capitals in the developing countries.
That’s why he offered the concept (model) of imbalanced economic growth.
№61 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
His logic was the following:
Initial investments → imbalance → stimulae for new investments → new investments → new disequilibrium → new disequilibrium as the stimulate for new investments.
№62 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The Hirshman’s model emphasizes that many branches in any national economies are mutually interconnected between themselves.
№63 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
So if the government provides the support (f. e. financial) to some of them, it provokes the chain reaction in the whole national economy: the stimulated branches become the points of growth.
№64 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
G. Myrdal and H. Zinger as the critics of Hirshman’s concept.
№65 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
Two gaps model (Chenery H., Bruno M.): the economic development is the result of the squeezing out the exterior sources of investments and their replacement by endogenous (domestic) sources.
Obviously this model ignored the existing shortage of capital in the developing countries.
№66 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
The Keynesian’ models of economic growth were popular in the post-war period (1950-1960). But gradually it became ever more evident that they could not be considered as an effective instrument to accelerate economic growth and to overcome the backwardness of developing countries.
№67 слайд
Содержание слайда: Theme 1II.
Keynesian models of economic growth
That’s why the initial euphoria was replaced by a great disappointment.
The theoretical vacuum was filled up by a new concept of modernization, worked out by the competitive neoclassical economic school, i. e. the theory of dualistic economy (the main ideas of which will be examined at the next lecture).
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