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- Всего слайдов:67 слайдов
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Слайды и текст к этой презентации:
№2 слайд
![Course Revision The following](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img1.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Course Revision
The following topics highlight the prime learning points for the course
They are not intended to indicate the contents of the exam paper
Where the course revision topics have been extracted from a set of lecture slides you are recommended to familiarise yourself with the original set and do background reading
Do not neglect other topics covered during the year
№5 слайд
![Economic Risk Analysis ERA](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img4.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Economic Risk Analysis (ERA)
IMF uses quantitative analysis for evaluating economies
Economic risk is present in all countries, but most significant in emerging and developing economies
Guidelines devised at Greenwich evaluate the security of doing business in the country
Emerging and developing countries tend to trade in a narrow range of products and depend on cash flow
The three main measures of a country’s financial standing:
GDP – how much is it producing?
Inflation – how well controlled?
Current Account – are the imports affordable?
The first part of compulsory Exam Question 1 uses simple IMF-style quantitative formulas to measure economic performance against a standard
The second part of the question identifies and evaluates the main economic factors in order to make a qualitative investment decision in the country
№6 слайд
![Finding the data Most of the](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img5.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Finding the data
Most of the data is available from the World Bank
The data is for all countries, not just emerging or developing economy clients of The Bank
One piece of data, for the current account/GDP, comes from the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)
In the exam the data will comprise the World Bank figures + CAD/GDP
The data sheet will be a Word file
The exam will focus on an emerging economy
№8 слайд
![. GDP Growth Question is the](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img7.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 1. GDP Growth
Question: is the economy growing at a sustainable rate?
Answer: target 2.0-3.0% developed, 6.0-10.0% emerging and 7.0-11.0% developing economies
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures everything produced in the country regardless of nationality
Real (constant prices) GDP increases show genuine growth in the economy
Positive, steady growth is always good but the gains may be unevenly distributed
Undesirable GDP conditions:
High growth – rising wages, inflation, imports and interest rates
Low growth – poor exploitation of resources, poor competitiveness, low wealth creation
Recession – wealth destruction, hysteresis effects
№9 слайд
![GDP Growth targets Need to](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img8.jpg)
Содержание слайда: GDP Growth targets
Need to find a balance between a booming economy and recession
An overheating economy with high inflation is usually treated with high interest rates
A recessionary economy with low inflation is usually treated with low interest rates
Stagflation (low growth, high inflation) is a challenging paradox!
Rate of return should match the risk
№12 слайд
![Inflation and Risk return](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img11.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Inflation and Risk/return
Most central banks are targeting 2.0% CPI inflation
Some central banks will accept overshoots and undershoots for short periods, others (e.g. ECB) will accept only an undershoot
On balance, 0.0-2.0% inflation is probably considered low risk
World Bank data shows inflation as GDP deflator
№15 слайд
![Criticism of the IMF](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img14.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Criticism of the IMF Quantitative approach
Many feel that the IMF style of analysis does more harm than good
Criticisms:
It is a creature of the US and Europe
It has a neo-liberal agenda for low government spending, privatisation and debt repayment
It treats all countries the same
IMF’s defence
It is invited by the host government
It is the last resort – everything else has failed
The worse the taste the better the medicine
№16 слайд
![Focus points Memorise the](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img15.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Focus points
Memorise the targets – could be represented as graphs?
Be sure to match the rate of return to the risk level
Include a short paragraph [4 points] on why this snapshot, prescribed approach is not suited to all countries all the time. This sets you up for answering Part II which is qualitative.
№17 слайд
![ERA exam question Part ii FDI](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img16.jpg)
Содержание слайда: ERA exam question Part ii:
FDI investment decision
The second half of Exam Question 1 concerns the best target for foreign direct investment (FDI) by a company
In your considered opinion, how attractive is (Country X) as a destination for foreign direct investment (FDI)? Taking a long-term view, you should build up a case for a specific company making an FDI investment. The business case should be a credible argument based on qualitative analysis of the data you consider most relevant to the investment decision. [15 marks]
The decision of which sector of the economy to invest in can only be based on the information in the datasheet – no credit will be given for special knowledge!
The FDI decision should identify and analyse the most appropriate economic factors
№18 слайд
![Factors influencing FDI The](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img17.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Factors influencing FDI
The economic factors that are appropriate to the FDI decision depend upon the nature of the investment – it is therefore an opportunity for creative thinking by entrepreneurs
FDI entrepreneurs need to analyse trends in the data to uncover any new opportunities
It is also important to identify specific data that indicates new opportunities
To help you remember the most important factors, we have a Greenwich mnemonic:
GLIFTS
№22 слайд
![sources World Bank lt http](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img21.jpg)
Содержание слайда: sources
World Bank
<http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports/ReportWidgetCustom.aspx?Report_Name=CountryProfile&Id=b450fd57>
IMF (for CAD/GDP) – latest World Economic Outlook report
<http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28>
Australia CAD/GDP – Mr Wood.com.au
<http://economics.mrwood.com.au/statistics/goal/goalcadgdp.asp>
US Debt Service – Creditflowinvestor.com
<http://www.creditflowinvestor.com/FederalDebtService.htm>
IMF paper on MRR – Boorman, J. and S. Ingves (2001), Issues in Reserves Adequacy and Management
<http://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/resad/2001/101501.pdf>
Bank of England current account information sheet
<http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2006/speech271.pdf>
IMF guide to financial terminology
<http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/eds/Eng/Guide/file6.pdf>
UN debt service ratio definition
<http://esl.jrc.it/envind/un_meths/UN_ME069.htm>
№23 слайд
![Focus points Prepare a range](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img22.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Focus points
Prepare a range of case study companies in advance and think about what they need from the economy
Apple – expanding economy, educated workforce, growing access to high technology
GSK pharmaceuticals – rising life expectancy, evidence or rising medical spending
Starbucks coffee plantation – low education, low urban growth, low industry/services value added
Don’t just list your observations, each economic factor should serve your ultimate investment decision
№24 слайд
![Questions - Uncompulsory](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img23.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Questions 2-6: Uncompulsory
5 questions, you choose 3 of them
Each requires a mini-essay answer:
Start with a theory or conceptual framework and criticise it
Bring in a case study as a test of the theory/framework in a deductive style
Suggest improvements to the theory/framework
№26 слайд
![Risk Vs Uncertainty Knight](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img25.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Risk Vs Uncertainty
Knight (1921)/ Chicago
Risk : When probabilities can be identified, eg. playing poker, roulette. Degree of aversion to risk largely irrelevant.
Uncertainty : when probabilities are too miniscule, population of events are large and assigning probabilities may not be meaningful.
Opportunities for business
Risk – objective judgment, can be researched and planned, involves existing markets and/or products
Uncertainty – subjective judgment to convert uncertainty to risk, requires entrepreneurs who can forge new directions, involves new markets and/or products
№27 слайд
![Types of Uncertainty Level](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img26.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Types of Uncertainty
Level 1 : past predictive, trend analysis
Predicting the demand for pizzas during tomorrow’s football match
Level 2 : discrete (binary) futures
Predicting outcome of elections next year – “if this then that”
Level 3 : multiple futures
Predicting technological change in TV – 3D, 4K, internet
Level 4 : true ambiguity
Predicting future of multi media – Google Glass, Apple Watch
№31 слайд
![Risk, Uncertainty and reward](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img30.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Risk, Uncertainty and reward
Risk is the strategist’s best friend
The degree of risk is compensated for by the size of the reward
Where information is equally available risk calculations should be the same by all parties – no opportunity for arbitrage
Uncertainty is the entrepreneur’s secret weapon
The entrepreneur seeks new and exclusive information
The entrepreneur calculates a new, lower risk factor but benefits from the high returns calculated by others
№32 слайд
![risk analysis steps Step I](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img31.jpg)
Содержание слайда: risk analysis steps
Step I : Sorting Environmental Data
Performance : GDP, Inflation, BoP etc
Strategy: National Goals, Policies, etc
Context: Institutional and Ideological basis
Step II : Relating the data
Determining Uncertainty Type
Past Predictive, Discrete Options, Multiple Options, True Ambiguity : Courtney’s Model
Prediction & Scenario Generation
№33 слайд
![Focus points You should be](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img32.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Focus points
You should be aware that risk is a normal part of the business environment
Risk requires meticulous analysis so that it is fully understood and the appropriate rate of return obtained
Uncertainty does not yield the same assurances
Competitive advantage comes from lowering company-specific risk
Consider case studies where companies have invested in low, medium and high risk environments
Political risk has a number of angles, principally 3 dimensions: procedural, distributive and catastrophic
Consider case study examples for each dimension
Consider how you can assess political risk
№35 слайд
![Mercantalism Principal wealth](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img34.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Mercantalism
Principal: wealth based on holdings of gold
The Concept: Trade is a zero sum game: one country gains at the expense of others
Drove the economic expansion in the 17th /18th centuries
Imperialism was also in line with military power
Colonies forced to export commodities and import manufactured products
The Limitations:
De-industrialisation, brain drain, adverse movement of factors of production from colonies
Inefficient production
Rising inflation
Current usage: neo-mercantilism is politically attractive
№36 слайд
![Adam Smith and Absolute](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img35.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Adam Smith and Absolute Advantage
Principle: Adam Smith – both nations can gain from trade
The concept : countries should specialize in producing those commodities in which they have an absolute advantage
The UK has an advantage in producing “scotch”, while France has an advantage in “champagne”
Brings specialisation benefits – economies of scale, learning
Can derive from natural or acquired advantages
Results in absolute efficiency advantage
Limitations: some countries have no absolute advantage, natural or acquired
Current usage: applicable to some industries, particularly strategic
№37 слайд
![Comparative Advantage](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img36.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Comparative Advantage
Principle: Ricardo (1817) – even a country with all absolute advantages is comparatively better at some things
The concept :
two countries specialise in the areas in which they have a comparative advantage (and possibly an absolute disadvantage)
Depends on relative efficiency
The comparison is within the country
Opens trade to developing entrants
Limitations:
Assumes factors of production are only mobile within countries
Current usage: basic theory of trade
№38 слайд
![Mercantilism and developing](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img37.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Mercantilism and developing economies
Mercantilism allows a country to build up industry based on export sales
Import restrictions keep out the competition but consumers are worse off
FDI substitutes for imports
WTO will permit protection of infant industries using mercantilist policies but only until the industry reaches maturity and can compete with global rivals
The mercantilist strategy has a time limit – the country must open its borders to international trade and its advantages once the country has established its own comparative advantages
№39 слайд
![Focus points Familiarise](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img38.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Focus points
Familiarise yourself with the temptations of mercantilism and how countries think they can gain by using it
Make sure you can critically analyse the theory, showing that it fails to capitalise on the gains offered by comparative advantage approaches
Prepare a case study of a major developing/emerging economy that has used, or is using, mercantilism in some form to promote economic growth. How long can it last? What should it do next?
№41 слайд
![Porter s Perspective Asserted](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img40.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Porter’s Perspective
Asserted that industry attractiveness is not a function of specific technology or product attributes but of the wider industry structure
Strategic positioning is one where the local conditions offer an advantage to the incoming foreign firm
Intense overall competition offers little for the incoming firm
Some competitive forces may be quite limited – there are compensations in strengths elsewhere
№43 слайд
![The bargaining power of](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img42.jpg)
Содержание слайда: The bargaining power of buyers
The extent to which the buyer can influence the prices
Can happen when…
Buyer group is large
Product is perishable
Low switching costs between suppliers
Threat of backward integration – they can manufacture the product themselves
Highly sensitive to price movements
№44 слайд
![power of suppliers The extent](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img43.jpg)
Содержание слайда: power of suppliers
The extent to which the suppliers can influence the cost of production in the value chain
Can happen when…
There is a credible threat of backward integration
There are monopsonistic tendencies in the market
The product is differentiated and there are high switching costs involved
The product is undifferentiated but available to other industries
№45 слайд
![Threat of new entrants The](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img44.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Threat of new entrants
The threat from the market getting flooded with new players
Can happen when…
There low barriers to entry in the market
When capital requirements are not very high
Exit costs are low, and there are no specialized assets created
Low economies of scale
№47 слайд
![Extent of inter-firm](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img46.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Extent of inter-firm competition
An increase in the number of firms will increase competitive rivalry… will affect price, costs and volumes
Can happen when
Industry growth is slow
Rivals are all similar size
There are high fixed/storage costs
Capacity augmented in large increments due to high economies of scale
Exit barriers are high
Competition is based around price – similar products,
№48 слайд
![Factors not Forces The](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img47.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Factors not Forces
The competitive forces impact on profitability – some items are factors but do not in themselves impact on profitability
High industry growth rate – suppliers may gain in power, there may be low entry barriers
Technology – new advances are not attractive in themselves, established industries may be more attractive
Government – Porter did not see this as a force since its impact depends on the policy details
Complementary products – accompanying technology eg. fuel networks for vehicle
The model is only a snapshot, the forces may shift in strength
№49 слайд
![Andrew Grove six forces model](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img48.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Andrew Grove: six forces model
Model adds role of complementors to the Five Forces model
Complementors are external powers that balance the forces within the industry
Complementors include:
Government – eg. legislation that is inequitable
Pressure groups – eg. environmental lobby
Porter would characterise these as factors
№50 слайд
![Focus points Consider case](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img49.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Focus points
Consider case studies that don’t just illustrate how the model works but reveal additional insights into its weaknesses
Some factors seem clear but it can be quite difficult to state what they mean in reality e.g. what’s the difference between new entrants and substitutes?
There are other market influences that Porter claims are not forces because they do not impact on profitability. How far do you agree with this?
№53 слайд
![. Product Delivering value](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img52.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 1. Product – Delivering value
Legal requirement
Safety – pharmaceuticals
Environment – cars
Non-tariff barriers
Cultural awareness
Religious differences – eg. consumption of meat
Local customs – cup-holders for Americans
Economic factors
Local disposable income levels
Conditions of use – eg. who will use it and how
№54 слайд
![New Product Development npd](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img53.jpg)
Содержание слайда: New Product Development (npd)
Rate of NPD greater in countries where
It is an R&D intensive industry
Sales volumes are sufficient
Consumers can afford the value-added
Competition is intense
Integrating R&D, production & marketing ensures
Project development driven by customer needs
New products are designed for ease of manufacture
Development costs are kept in alignment with demand
Time to market is minimized
Pressure to standardise as much as possible
№55 слайд
![Price International issues](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img54.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 2: Price – International issues
Government controls
Minimum and maximum prices
Prohibition against dumping
Taxation
Market diversity – national differences
Skimming – high price for short-term profit
Penetration – low pricing for market share
Cost-plus – calculated margin for long-term plan
Price escalation in export
Cost-plus % calculation can rise exponentially with cost
Tariffs
Analysis to select appropriate end price
Exchange rate fluctuation
Fixed and variable pricing
№56 слайд
![Pricing risk Inflation A](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img55.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Pricing risk
Inflation
A “paper profit” may be pumped up by inflation on inventory
Tax is based on the paper profit
Costs of frequent price changes
Exchange rate
Transaction risk – the revenue received reduces if customer changes the terms of the deal
Translation risk – reported revenues are undermined by currency changes
Fluctuation – may have to take a long-term view
Arbitrage – grey imports
Customers may exploit price differences if transport costs have not be properly taken into account
№57 слайд
![Promotion Push strategy](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img56.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 3: Promotion
Push strategy
Emphasizes personal selling within the distribution chain
Requires intense use of a sales force
Suits low fixed cost, but high variable cost products
Pull strategy
Relies on mass media advertising to end buyer
Suits high fixed cost, but low variable cost products
Determining factors
Product type and consumer sophistication
Production system – pressure of economies of scale
Distribution system
Media availability
№58 слайд
![Place Different distribution](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img57.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 4: Place
Different distribution systems due to
Country-specific differences
Consumer spending habits
Retail concentration
Choosing the best distribution system
Financial strength of wholesaler or retailer
Distributor’s knowledge and capability
The number and types of product lines
Retail format – large stores or local shops
Choices for establishing the network
Local agent for entry period
Regional before national
Global system or local
№59 слайд
![More PS Service industries](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img58.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 3 More PS
Service industries have intangible aspects that need marketing
Kotler felt 4 was enough
In addition to the tangible 4Ps:
People
Staff skills, CRM, customer service
Process
Ease of contact, customer oriented logistics
Physical Evidence
Making the intangible tangible eg. free trials, showroom design, branding
№60 слайд
![Focus points You need to do](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img59.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Focus points
You need to do more than illustrate how the 4Ps work, you need to critically analyse
This leads directly into the additional Ps, and perhaps also other mnemonics
Kotler thought the 4Ps were sufficient, but then he would…
Consider a case study that not only shows all the Ps in action but also provides further critical insights and recommendations
№63 слайд
![Joint Venture Definition The](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img62.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 1: Joint Venture
Definition
The term “joint venture” tends to describe the purpose of the alliance rather than the structure
The JV could be a company or a partnership
A JV is a separate operation from its partners
The partners own equal shares
Both partners have to agree to terminate
Specific advantages
Both partners are tied in
Specific disadvantages
Restrictive
Example
Toyota-GM NUUMI plant in California
№64 слайд
![Equity strategic alliance](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img63.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 2: Equity strategic alliance
Definition
Partner firms take different sized shares
Often used for a new strategy (eg. new technology)
Specific advantages
Can help to achieve economies of scale
Can bring a technology to market more quickly
Exploits a shorter product life cycle
Specific disadvantages
Opportunism of one partner exploiting a new technology
One partner dominates
Example
Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation – Ballard 20%, Ford 30% and Daimler 50%
№65 слайд
![Non-Equity strategic alliance](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img64.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 3: Non-Equity strategic alliance
Definition
Partner firms share no ownership interest
No separate firm is created
Secured by simple contracts
Specific advantages
Less knowledge is exchanged, so reduced risk
Specific disadvantages
Not suited to complex relationships (eg. technology development)
Example
Asahi Super Dry (beer) is brewed in the UK by Shepherd Neame for the local market
№66 слайд
![Global strategic alliance](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img65.jpg)
Содержание слайда: 4: Global strategic alliance
Definition
Partner firms share no ownership interest
No separate firm is created
Secured by simple contracts
Specific advantages
Expands global market exposure
Avoids obstacles to full mergers
Specific disadvantages
Companies are dependent on each other to uphold reputations
Example
Oneworld Alliance – British Airways, Cathay Pacific, American Airways etc.
№67 слайд
![Focus points Make sure you](/documents_6/8ee346f9a16726ea3d6a314c407352dc/img66.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Focus points
Make sure you can clearly distinguish one type of alliance from another
You need to be able to critically analyse them, not simply describe them
Prepare case studies for each type and be ready to use one in significant detail
The case study should be critical, revealing weaknesses in the neatness of the theory. Indeed, the case study may even straddle more than one kind of alliance.
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