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Слайды и текст к этой презентации:
№31 слайд
![I-GARCH If the coefficients](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img30.jpg)
Содержание слайда: I-GARCH
If the coefficients of the GARCH model sum to 1, then the model has “integrated” volatility.
This is similar to having a random walk, but in volatility instead of the variable itself.
Model itself remains stationary (if constant variance model is stationary)
Likelihood-based inference remains valid (Lumsdaine, 1996 Econometrica)
№58 слайд
![VaR What is the most I can](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img57.jpg)
Содержание слайда: VaR
What is the most I can lose on an investment?
VaR tries to provide an answer.
It is used most often by commercial and investment banks to capture the potential loss in value of their traded portfolios from adverse market movements over a specified period.
This potential loss can then be compared to their available capital and cash reserves to ensure that the losses can be covered without putting the firms at risk.
VaR is applied widely in capital regulation (Basel)
№59 слайд
![Value-at-Risk VaR VaR](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img58.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Value-at-Risk (VaR)
VaR summarizes the expected maximum loss over a time horizon within a given confidence interval
The VaR approach tries to estimate the level of losses that will be exceeded over a given time period only with a certain (small) probability
For example, the 95% VaR loss is the amount of loss that will be exceeded only 5% of the time
№60 слайд
![Value-at-Risk VaR - Continued](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img59.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Value-at-Risk (VaR) - Continued
The simplest assumption: daily gains/losses are normally distributed and independent.
Calculate VaR from the standard deviation of the portfolio change, σ, assuming the mean change in the portfolio value is 0:
1-day VaR= N-1(X)σ, with X the confidence level.
The N-day VaR equals sqrt(N) times the 1-day VaR.
№64 слайд
![Portfolio VaR When we have](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img63.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Portfolio VaR
When we have more than one asset in our portfolio we can exploit the gains from diversification.
There are gains from diversification whenever the VaR for the portfolio does not exceed the sum of the stand-alone VaRs (i.e., the VaRs on the single assets).
The VaR for the portfolio equals the sum of the stand-alone VaRs if and only if the securities’ returns are uncorrelated.
№65 слайд
![An Example Let us consider](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img64.jpg)
Содержание слайда: An Example
Let us consider the following investment
US$200 million invested in 5-year zero coupon US Treasury
Examine VaR using a daily horizon
Assume that the mean daily return is 0.01%
Based on past several years of actual returns, the standard deviation is s = 0.295%.
№67 слайд
![An Example of Portfolio VaR](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img66.jpg)
Содержание слайда: An Example of Portfolio VaR
Two securities
30-year zero-coupon U.S. Treasury bond
5-year zero-coupon U.S. Treasury bond
For simplicity assume that the expected return is zero
Invest US$100 million in the 30-year bond
Daily return volatility (std dev) s1 = 1.409%
Invest US$200 million in the 5-year bond
Daily return volatility (std dev) s2 = 0.295%
№69 слайд
![VaR of the Portfolio Suppose](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img68.jpg)
Содержание слайда: VaR of the Portfolio
Suppose the correlation between the two bonds is r12=0.88
Remember that
Portfolio variance:
(100*0.01409)2 + (200*0.00295)2
+2(100*0.01409)(200*0.00295) * 0.88 = 3.797
Portfolio standard deviation:
sp = $1.948m
Portfolio VaR = 1.65 * 1.948m = $3.214m
This is different from the sum of VaRs
№72 слайд
![Backtesting Model backtesting](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img71.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Backtesting
Model backtesting involves systematic comparisons of the calculated VaRs with the subsequent realized profits and losses.
With a 95% VaR bound, expect 5% of losses greater than the bound
Example: Approximately 12 days out of 250 trading days
If the actual number of exceptions is “significantly” higher than the desired confidence level, the model may be inaccurate.
Therefore, in additional to the risk predicted by the VaR, there is also “model risk”
№73 слайд
![Relevance Basel VaR](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img72.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Relevance: Basel VaR Guidelines
VaR computed daily, holding period is 10 days.
The confidence interval is 99 percent
Banks are required to hold capital in proportion to the losses that can be expected to occur more often than once every 100 periods
At least 1 year of data to calculate parameters
Parameter estimates updated at least quarterly
Capital provision is the greater of
Previous day’s VAR
3 times the average of the daily VAR for the preceding 60 business days plus a factor based on backtesting results
№74 слайд
![Summing up A host of research](/documents_6/978a8c6e65190331b190cee1a2a738cd/img73.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Summing up
A host of research has examined
a. how best to compute VaR with assumptions other than the standardized normal
b. How to obtain more reliable variance and covariance values to use in the VaR calculations.
Here Multivariate GARCH models play an important role in assessing both portfolio risk and diversification benefits.
We will see this in the forthcoming workshop
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