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- Тип файла:ppt / pptx (powerpoint)
- Всего слайдов:26 слайдов
- Для класса:1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
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Слайды и текст к этой презентации:
№2 слайд
![Risk and Uncertainty Risk and](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img1.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Risk and Uncertainty
Risk and uncertainty are similar in that they both present the problem of not knowing what future conditions will be
Risk offers estimates of probabilities for possible outcomes
Uncertainty does not provide estimates of probabilities for possible outcomes
This book treats them as interchangeable
№6 слайд
![Type of Physical Plant and](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img5.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Type of Physical Plant and Equipment Involved
Some types of structures and equipment have definite economic lives and market values – they may be used in a multitude of settings
Other dwellings and equipment, being made for very specific and singular functions, may have little or no resale value
№8 слайд
![Sensitivity Analysis](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img7.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity – The degree to which a measure of merit (i.e., PW, IRR, etc…) will change as a result of changes in one or more of the study factor values.
Sensitivity Analysis Techniques
Breakeven Analysis
Sensitivity Graph (spider-plot)
Combination of factors
№9 слайд
![Breakeven Analysis Technique](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img8.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Breakeven Analysis
Technique commonly used when an uncertain single factor (EG: capacity utilization) determines the selection of an alternative or acceptability of an engineering project
For given alternative, if best estimate of actual outcome of common factor is higher or lower than the breakeven point, and assumed certain, the best alternative becomes apparent
№10 слайд
![Breakeven Analysis](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img9.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Breakeven Analysis
Indifference between alternatives
(EWA = f1(y); EWB = f2(y)
EWA = EWB; f1(y) = f2(y) : Solve for y
Economic acceptability of engineering project
EWp = f(z) = 0
The value of ‘z’ is the value at which we would be indifferent between accepting or rejecting the project
№12 слайд
![Breakeven Analysis for](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img11.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Breakeven Analysis for Economic Acceptability of an Engineering Project
Most easily approached by equating an equivalent worth of the project to zero as a function of the factor of concern
Because of the potential difference in project lives, care should be taken to determine whether the co-terminated or the repeatability assumption best fits the situation
№14 слайд
![Example Two electric motors](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img13.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Example
Two electric motors are being considered to power an industrial hoist. Each is capable of providing 90 hp. Pertinent data for each motor are presented bellow.
If the expected usage of the hoist is 500 hr per year, what would the cost of electrical energy have to be (in cents per kilowatt-hour) before the D-R motor is favored over the Westhouse motor? The MARR is 12% per year. [Note: 1hp = 0.746KW]
№16 слайд
![Example Solution Let X](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img15.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Example: Solution
Let X = electrical energy cost in $/kW-hr. Equate the equivalent uniform annual worth of both motors:
AWD-R(12%) = AWWH(12%)
-$2,500(A/P,12%,10) - $40 - (90 hp/0.74)(0.746 kW/hp)(500 hrs)(X / kW-hr)
= -$3,200(A/P,12%,10) - $60 - (90 hp/0.89)(0.746 kW/hp)(500 hrs)(X / kW-hr)
$482.5 + ($45,364.87)(X) = $626.4 + ($37,719.10)(X)
X = $143.90 / $7,645.77 = $0.0188 / kW-hr or 1.88¢ / kW-hr
№20 слайд
![EXAMPLE - a Capital](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img19.jpg)
Содержание слайда: EXAMPLE 10-4
(a) Capital investment varies by + - p
PW(10%) = -(1+_ p%/100)*$11,500 + $3,000(P/A, 10%, 6) + $1,000(P/F, 10%, 6)
(b) Annual cash flow varies by + - a
PW(10%) = - $11,500 +
(1+_ a%/100)*$3,000(P/A, 10%, 6) + $1,000(P/F, 10%, 6)
(c) Market Value varies by + - s
PW(10%) = - $11,500 +
$3,000(P/A, 10%, 6) + (1+_ s%/100)*$1,000(P/F, 10%, 6)
(d) Useful life varies by + - n
PW(10%) = - $11,500 +
$3,000(P/A, 10%, (6+_n%/100)) + $1,000(P/F, 10%, (6+_n%/100))
№22 слайд
![Revelations of Spider-plot](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img21.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Revelations of Spider-plot
Shows the sensitivity of the present worth to percent deviation changes in each factor’s best estimate
Other factors are assumed to remain at their best estimate values
The relative degree of sensitivity of the present worth to each factor is indicated by the slope of the curves (the “steeper” the slope of a curve the more sensitive the present worth is to the factor)
The intersection of each curve with the abscissa shows the percent change in each factor’s best estimate at which the present worth is zero
№24 слайд
![Measuring Sensitivity by a](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img23.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Measuring Sensitivity by a Combination of Factors
Develop a sensitivity graph for the project
a. For most sensitive factors, improve estimates and reduce range of uncertainty
Use sensitivity graph to select most sensitive project factors. Analyze combined effects of these factors on project’s economic measure of merit by:
a. Additional graphical technique for two most sensitive factors
b. Determine the impact of selected combinations of three or more factors -- scenarios
№25 слайд
![Pitfalls of Risk Adjusted](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img24.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Pitfalls of Risk Adjusted MARR
A widely used industrial practice for including some consideration of uncertainty is to increase the MARR
Even though intent of risk-adjusted MARR is to make more uncertain projects appear less economically attractive, opposite may appear to be true
Cost-only projects are made to appear more desirable as the interest rate is adjusted upward to account for uncertainty
№26 слайд
![Reduction of Useful Life By](/documents_6/aff2092ea95428ccffe74351c4f0d34f/img25.jpg)
Содержание слайда: Reduction of Useful Life
By dropping from consideration those revenues (savings) and expenses that may occur after a reduced study period, heavy emphasis is placed on rapid recovery of capital in early years of a project’s life
This method is closely related to the discounted payback technique and suffers from most of the same deficiencies
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