Презентация The phillips curve, the natural rate of unemployment and inflation онлайн
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Слайды и текст к этой презентации:
№1 слайд
Содержание слайда: CHAPTER 10:
THE PHILLIPS CURVE,
THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION
№2 слайд
Содержание слайда: The Natural Rate of Unemployment
and the Phillips Curve
The Phillips curve, based on the data above, shows a negative relation between inflation and unemployment.
№3 слайд
Содержание слайда: 10.1 Inflation, Expected Inflation
and Unemployment
The above equation is the aggregate supply relation derived in Chapter 8. This relation can be rewritten to establish a relation between inflation, expected inflation and the unemployment rate.
№4 слайд
Содержание слайда: The appendix to this chapter shows how to go from the equation above to the relation between inflation, expected inflation and the unemployment rate below:
The appendix to this chapter shows how to go from the equation above to the relation between inflation, expected inflation and the unemployment rate below:
№5 слайд
Содержание слайда: According to this equation:
According to this equation:
An increase in the expected inflation, e, leads to an increase in inflation, .
Given expected inflation, e, an increase in the mark-up, or an increase in the factors that affect wage determination—an increase in z—leads to an increase in inflation, .
Given expected inflation, e, an increase in the unemployment rate, u, leads to a decrease in inflation, .
№6 слайд
Содержание слайда: When referring to inflation, expected inflation or unemployment in a specific year, the equation above needs to include time indexes as follows:
When referring to inflation, expected inflation or unemployment in a specific year, the equation above needs to include time indexes as follows:
№7 слайд
Содержание слайда: 10.2 The Phillips Curve
If we set te = 0, then:
№8 слайд
Содержание слайда:
№9 слайд
Содержание слайда:
№10 слайд
Содержание слайда:
№11 слайд
Содержание слайда: The negative relation between unemployment and inflation held throughout the 1960s, but it vanished after that for two reasons:
The negative relation between unemployment and inflation held throughout the 1960s, but it vanished after that for two reasons:
An increase in the price of oil, but more importantly,
Change in the way wage setters formed expectations due to a change in the behaviour of the rate of inflation.
The inflation rate became consistently positive and
Inflation became more persistent.
№12 слайд
Содержание слайда:
№13 слайд
Содержание слайда: Suppose expectations of inflation are formed according to
Suppose expectations of inflation are formed according to
№14 слайд
Содержание слайда: We can think of what happened in the 1970s as an increase in the value of over time:
We can think of what happened in the 1970s as an increase in the value of over time:
As long as inflation was low and not very persistent, it was reasonable for workers and firms to ignore past inflation and to assume that the price level this year would be roughly the same as the price level last year.
But, as inflation became more persistent, workers and firms started changing the ways they formed expectations.
№15 слайд
Содержание слайда: When equals zero, we get the original Phillips curve, a relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate:
When equals zero, we get the original Phillips curve, a relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate:
№16 слайд
Содержание слайда: When = 1, the unemployment rate affects not the inflation rate, but the change in the inflation rate.
When = 1, the unemployment rate affects not the inflation rate, but the change in the inflation rate.
Since 1970, a clear negative relation emerged between the unemployment rate and the change in the inflation rate.
№17 слайд
Содержание слайда: The line that best fits the scatter of points for the period 1970–2006 is:
The line that best fits the scatter of points for the period 1970–2006 is:
№18 слайд
Содержание слайда: The original Phillips curve is:
The original Phillips curve is:
№19 слайд
Содержание слайда: Friedman and Phelps questioned the trade-off between unemployment and inflation. They argued that the unemployment rate could not be sustained below a certain level, a level they called the ‘natural rate of unemployment’.
Friedman and Phelps questioned the trade-off between unemployment and inflation. They argued that the unemployment rate could not be sustained below a certain level, a level they called the ‘natural rate of unemployment’.
The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate such that the actual inflation rate is equal to the expected inflation rate.
№20 слайд
Содержание слайда: This is an important relation because it gives another way of thinking about the Phillips curve in terms of the actual and the natural unemployment rates and the change in the inflation rate.
This is an important relation because it gives another way of thinking about the Phillips curve in terms of the actual and the natural unemployment rates and the change in the inflation rate.
№21 слайд
Содержание слайда: The equation above is an important relation for two reasons:
The equation above is an important relation for two reasons:
It gives us another way of thinking about the Phillips curve: as a relation between the actual unemployment rate ut, the natural unemployment rate un and the change in the inflation rate
It also gives us another way of thinking about the natural rate of unemployment. The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, (or NAIRU), is the rate of unemployment required to keep the inflation rate constant.
№22 слайд
Содержание слайда: Let’s summarize what we have learned so far:
Let’s summarize what we have learned so far:
When the unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate of unemployment, the inflation rate decreases. When the unemployment rate is below the natural rate of unemployment, the inflation rate increases.
№23 слайд
Содержание слайда: 10.3 The Phillips Curve and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Europe
The factors that affect the natural rate of unemployment above differ across countries. Therefore, there is no reason to expect all countries to have the same natural rate of unemployment.
№24 слайд
Содержание слайда: In the equation above, the terms and z may not be constant but, in fact, vary over time, leading to changes in the natural rate of unemployment.
In the equation above, the terms and z may not be constant but, in fact, vary over time, leading to changes in the natural rate of unemployment.
In Europe, the natural unemployment rate has increased a lot since the 1960s. In the United States, the natural unemployment rate increased by 1–2% from the 1960s to the 1980s, and appears to have decreased since then.
№25 слайд
Содержание слайда:
№26 слайд
Содержание слайда: The relation between unemployment and inflation is likely to change with the level and the persistence of inflation.
The relation between unemployment and inflation is likely to change with the level and the persistence of inflation.
When inflation is high, it is also more variable.
The form of wage agreements also changes with the level of inflation. Wage indexation, a rule that automatically increases wages in line with inflation, becomes more prevalent when inflation is high.
№27 слайд
Содержание слайда: Let denote the proportion of labour contracts that is indexed, and (1 ) the proportion that is not indexed.
Let denote the proportion of labour contracts that is indexed, and (1 ) the proportion that is not indexed.
Then,
becomes:
№28 слайд
Содержание слайда: When is positive,
When is positive,
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